Facebook Will Be in ebaY’s shoes in Three Years
The recent backlash over the latest ebaY’s feedback changes is just the latest problem with the auction company. The fact is that ebaY isn’t exciting anymore. The newness of auctions is gone. I can, many times, get cheaper prices from Amazon for a new product than the price of a used product on ebaY. It’s still useful, but not something that I would use often. I think it boils down to a lack of innovation on ebaY’s part. Without innovation, there isn’t growth.
Today, I see a blog post by Michael Arrington talking about how Facebook is shunning the Android platform because of the bad blood between Facebook and Google. This situation, amongst many others, makes me think that Facebook is going to be the next ebaY. By that I mean, Facebook will continue to grow until it reaches maximum capacity within its own market. But I don’t see the seeds of innovation wihtin Facebook to continue that growth into new markets such as Google has done. In other words, Facebook is a one-note company, and once the excitement is over, that growth will stagger. People will still use it. People still use ebaY. But without constant innovation, that growth will disappear. I’m calling it now. I’d give it 3 years. Facebook will have major growth problems.
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See I read your blog.
I think this trend is inevitable regarding most succesful companies and businesses. Amazon is still successful even though they have not been innovative.
This is also true of non-internet businesses. Is Sears Roebuck cutting edge? Is the Gap keeping things fresh? It is inevitable that all businesses interent and not become stale and cease to grow. It is only the select few, that remain fresh, and ironically, Ebay did stay fresh for over 10 years, in contradiction to the typical business lifetime growth.